Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 0.223161 0.251319 0.281799 0.317268 0.357439 0.401561 0.453744
2025-11-09 0.167879 0.202408 0.242510 0.292612 0.353657 0.425782 0.517703
2025-11-16 0.133947 0.171612 0.218194 0.280231 0.360982 0.462940 0.602092
2025-11-23 0.108665 0.147149 0.197558 0.268753 0.367266 0.499572 0.692094
2025-11-30 0.093840 0.133808 0.189048 0.271497 0.392362 0.564490 0.830776
2025-12-07 0.077922 0.116439 0.172336 0.260086 0.395727 0.599637 0.933543
2025-12-14 0.066646 0.104032 0.160817 0.254286 0.406170 0.646496 1.061914
2025-12-21 0.057582 0.093600 0.150681 0.248889 0.416139 0.693866 1.199194
2025-12-28 0.052192 0.088184 0.147582 0.254219 0.444220 0.774817 1.407105
2026-01-04 0.046271 0.081011 0.140529 0.251672 0.458201 0.833563 1.585829
2026-01-11 0.041867 0.075826 0.136116 0.253026 0.479215 0.907943 1.806941
2026-01-18 0.038523 0.072063 0.133678 0.257558 0.506737 0.998619 2.076408
2026-01-25 0.033722 0.065075 0.124595 0.248529 0.507396 1.039006 2.254992
2026-02-01 0.029210 0.058045 0.114508 0.236037 0.499137 1.060175 2.397327
2026-02-08 0.026086 0.053354 0.108408 0.230854 0.505532 1.113639 2.623784
2026-02-15 0.023291 0.048964 0.102333 0.224814 0.509106 1.161630 2.847746
2026-02-22 0.021773 0.047066 0.101228 0.229566 0.538019 1.272686 3.250268
2026-03-01 0.019427 0.043055 0.095015 0.221727 0.536000 1.310006 3.472278
2026-03-08 0.017669 0.040133 0.090840 0.218057 0.543560 1.372298 3.774688
2026-03-15 0.016110 0.037464 0.086893 0.214346 0.550410 1.434042 4.089385
2026-03-22 0.015278 0.036395 0.086550 0.219561 0.581312 1.564630 4.631723
2026-03-29 0.014119 0.034387 0.083682 0.217850 0.593363 1.646079 5.045649
2026-04-05 0.013246 0.032978 0.082116 0.219360 0.614649 1.757598 5.579643